Case Study: What Buy-In Rates Reveal About the Middle Eastern Art Market

The case

This week, The Art Newspaper published a comment piece by the art market economist Faustine Jean-Louis, founder of Apotheosis Advisory, asking why art is increasingly being priced and financed like a commodity when it does not behave like one. Our region features prominently. "The capital behind this fast-growing regional market is, at one remove, hydrocarbon revenue on a lag," she writes of Middle Eastern art, before making the point that interests us most: "The buy-in rate is the clearest demand signal available." In other words, look at what fails to sell, not only at the records. So we did.

The numbers

Start with Bonhams, the example Jean-Louis cites. Its live Modern and Contemporary Middle Eastern Art sale on New Bond Street on 25 November 2025 made £3,249,204 and set several world records, according to the auction house. Naim Ismail's Hayy ibn Yaqzan set an artist record at £140,100 against an estimate of £40,000 to £60,000, and Safeya Binzagr's Traditional Attire, a set of 30 hand-coloured lithographs, made £102,000, a record for a female Saudi artist. The top lot was Mohammed Sami's We're All Alone (2014) at £190,900, and Sliman Mansour's Woman from Bethlehem (1987) made £127,400 against £60,000 to £80,000. Bonhams said that female artists achieved a 100% sell-through rate.

Bonhams' online sale in February 2026 tells a different story. According to HENI, it took $286,800 (£212,300), with 34 of 55 lots sold, a sell-through rate of 62%; in Jean-Louis's words, "two in five works unsold". Its live London sale on 4 June 2026, which her piece does not mention, made £2.95 million ($3.97 million) within its estimate, with 71 of 99 lots sold (72%), led by Huguette Caland's Girl Skipping Rope (1998) at $341,700, again according to HENI.

Christie's did better online. Its Modern and Contemporary Middle Eastern Art Online sale, which closed on 16 June 2026, made £2,631,694 and was 98% sold by lot and 100% by value, Canvas reported. Saliba Douaihy's Untitled (Wadi Qannoubine) made £165,100 against a high estimate of £70,000, and Vera Tamari's Togetherness £53,340 against a high estimate of £5,000. In Saudi Arabia, Sotheby's Origins II sale in Diriyah on 31 January 2026 made $19.6 million with fees, according to Arab News, with only three of 67 lots unsold, according to Artribune. Safeya Binzagr's Coffee Shop in Madina Road (1968) made $2.06 million with fees against an estimate of $150,000 to $200,000, a record for a Saudi artist, Ocula reported.

What happened

Put side by side, these figures show a market with two speeds. Curated live sales and well-marketed online sales with strong names sell almost everything, while broader online sales at lower price points leave as many as two in five works unsold. Records are being set, often for women artists and for Saudi modernists, yet the overall totals at the London houses remain modest, in the region of £3 million a sale.

Jean-Louis's oil thesis deserves a closer look too. The capital behind the market may be hydrocarbon revenue on a lag, but 2026 is an unusual year for that signal. The US Energy Information Administration's October outlook forecasts Brent crude at an average of $96 a barrel in 2026, rising to $105 in the fourth quarter, yet it also assumes that Middle East oil flows remain constrained through the end of the year. High prices do not necessarily mean higher revenue for every producer when volumes are shut in.

Why it matters for the region

For a market still building its infrastructure, buy-in rates are a more honest indicator than headline records, and they are far easier to track than private sales. They show where demand is deep (Saudi modernism, Iraqi and Lebanese masters, and an encouraging appetite for women artists) and where it is thin. That matters as the auction houses move into the Gulf itself, with Sotheby's selling in Diriyah and Christie's about to hold its first fine art auction in Abu Dhabi. The more of these sales that publish full lot-by-lot results, the easier it becomes for collectors, artists and institutions in our region to read the market for themselves.

What to watch

Three things. First, the buy-in rate at Christie's Abu Dhabi auction on 1 November, a sale of around 70 works, which will be the clearest test yet of demand on home ground. Second, whether Bonhams' next London sale holds on to last November's total and sell-through for women artists. Third, whether constrained Gulf oil exports this year show up in the saleroom in 2027, which is exactly the lag Jean-Louis describes.

We'll be watching the unsold lots as closely as the records.

Figures are reported in the currency of sale, with conversions as given by the source.

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